Ren Zeping review August financial data credit cooperatives higher than expected haywire

Ren Zeping’s commentary on the August financial data: credit agency financing is higher than expected Sina Financial News September 14th news today, the central bank released the August financial data, China August new loans 948 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 11.4% M2, 1-8 months, the scale of social financing incremental cumulative 11 trillion and 750 billion. In this regard, the founder of macroeconomic analysis, said the loan and the financial sector is higher than expected, mainly with government spending to accelerate, PPP force and high mortgage related, corporate expansion will be low. New loans than expected, driven by real estate sales and non bank financial institutions loans, corporate loans are still weak. The following is a macro analysis of the founder events: the central bank in September 14th released data show that in August China new loans 948 billion 700 million yuan, 721 billion 880 million yuan before the expected value of 463 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 11.4%; M2, the previous value of 10.2%. 1-8 month social financing scale increments of 11 trillion and 750 billion yuan, more than the same period last year, more than 1 trillion and 100 billion yuan. August month social financing scale increments of 1 trillion and 470 billion yuan, more than last year, more than 360 billion yuan. Comments: 1) the core point of view: loans and social financing than expected, mainly with government spending to accelerate, PPP force and high mortgage related, corporate expansion will be low. The loan mainly rely on real estate sales and loans to non bank financial institutions to the financial community also depends mainly on the discounted bank acceptance bills and foreign exchange lending, corporate loans and bonds is still weak, but the rapid increase in local government debt worth, show rapid expansion and PPP active fiscal policy landing. Accelerate the pace of fiscal expenditure and residents to buy a house also makes financial deposits and deposits of residents to corporate deposits significantly. Maintain economic L type judgment. 2 new loans than expected, mainly driven by real estate sales and non bank financial institutions loans, corporate lending is still weak. August new loans slightly higher than expected, and the loan balance growth of 13% in August, compared with a slight rebound in the year of July, but still significantly lower than the level of 14.3%-14.4% in the two quarter of this year. 8 real estate sales driven by long-term loans to the residents increased rapidly (675 billion 500 million), and the non banking financial institutions loans in August increased by 146 billion 300 million yuan, a record high since the July stock market crash rescue last year, may be associated with the stability of stock market. Apart from the mortgage loans and non bank financial institutions, business loans are still weak, short-term and long-term corporate loans are a net reduction of 117 billion 200 million yuan and 8 billion yuan, showing that enterprise expansion will remain weak. 3) the financial community is higher than expected mainly by not discounted bank acceptance bills and foreign exchange lending, law-abiding corporate bonds. In addition to the loan, the financial sector is expected to be higher than expected from the non acceptance of bank notes and foreign exchange loans two. The central bank issued No. 224, electronic ticket straight paste can not provide information, some banks have already started the trial, due to the rapid development of electronic ticket, not discounted bills fell in August the scale of 37 billion 700 million yuan, 320 billion yuan this year than the average monthly decline significantly shrink the size. Foreign currency loans from negative to positive in August increased 7 billion yuan, a year high. Corporate bonds issued 330 billion 600 million yuan in August, the new theory相关的主题文章: